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Sep 9, 2009
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Evidence of British economic recovery mounts

By
Reuters
Published
Sep 9, 2009

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's recovery prospects brightened on Wednesday 9 September after surveys showed consumer morale jumping, employers hiring again and price pressures absent.



Official trade data added to the upbeat tone, with exports up 5 percent in July, the fastest increase since January 2008, keeping the trade gap on a narrowing trend and boosting optimism that global trade is picking up.

Imports also rose but at a slower pace.

"The picture in the near-term is looking increasingly rosy," said Brian Hilliard, chief UK economist at Societe Generale. "Output is picking up and it appears that unemployment will peak at a much lower level than people feared."

The Nationwide Consumer Confidence index rose to 63 in August from an upwardly-revised 61 in July. That was the highest since May 2008 and reflected Britons' more upbeat view as well as a greater willingness to spend.

A separate survey by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation and accountants KPMG showed the number of job appointments rose last month for the first time in over a year.

On inflation, figures from the British Retail Consortium showed shop prices fell 0.1 percent last month to register their first negative reading since February 2007.

There was even better news on the UK's deteriorating public finances. Ratings agency Moody's said Britain's triple-A sovereign debt rating was "resilient" and no ratings downgrade was expected in the near future, a restatement of its existing stance.

Britain still has some catching up to do with peers Germany and France, who exited recession in the second quarter while the UK contracted by 0.7 percent.

But economists are increasingly expecting a return to growth in the third quarter.

FOCUS ON BANK OF ENGLAND

The surveys provide an upbeat backdrop for Bank of England policymakers who kick off a two-day meeting to debate monetary policy on Wednesday 9 September.

But while the BoE has acknowledged the brighter tone of recent data, it remains concerned about the strength and sustainability of any economic recovery and is not expected to change interest rates or its 175 billion pound asset purchase scheme this week.

Nationwide's consumer confidence index showed a broad improvement in shoppers' morale.

The expectations index, which gauges peoples' sentiment about the economy, jobs and their own finances in six months' time, rose to 94 from 91 in July -- the highest since September 2007, when the global credit crunch first bit. The present situation index edged up to 17 from 16 in July, but still suggests Britons are overwhelmingly downbeat about the current climate, with more than 70 percent of respondents describing the employment and economic situation as "bad." "The rise in positive sentiment across all the indices is no surprise as a number of key economic indicators continue to show that we may have reached the bottom of the current recessionary cycle," said the mortgage lender's chief economist, Martin Gahbauer.

The KPMG/REC jobs report showed Britons had reason to feel less fearful about their employment prospects.

The index for firms' hiring of permanent workers rose to 50.6 from July's 46.1, the highest level for 17 months and above the 50-level that separates contraction from expansion.

"For the first time in 17 months, this month's report shows signs that the UK jobs market is improving," said REC Chief Executive Kevin Green. "It seems that employers are becoming more confident in their hiring decisions."

(By Fiona Shaikh and David Milliken. Writing by Christina Fincher; editing by Mike Peacock)

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