Positive holiday forecast suggests 3.6 to 4% increase in retail sales

By

Cassidy Mantor

Published
Oct 3, 2017

The National Retail Federation (NRF) has released a positive holiday forecast with retail sales expected to increase 3.6% to 4% over last year.

One reason for an increase in holiday sales is that there is an extra day this year between Thanksgiving Day and Christmas. This means there will be 32 days consumers can shop during the holidays.

“Our forecast reflects the very realistic steady momentum of the economy and overall strength of the industry,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.

Shay acknowledged that although there have been many challenges this year, including the recent hurricanes which have devastated many communities, the NRF believes a “strong consumer confidence will deliver retailers a strong holiday season.”

While NRF usually issues its holiday forecast as a single percentage, such as last year’s 3.6% growth, the hurricanes have caused enough financial instability to warrant a range in holiday spending this year. Regardless, the trend suggests an increase in holiday spending over the previous five year average of 3.5%.

The forecast is based on consumer credit, disposable personal income and previous monthly retail sales. The study covers both store and non-store categories which include direct to consumer, online and kiosk sales.

NFR will update the study after Thanksgiving Day when Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales are reported.