US cotton exports forecast to grow 53% in 2016-17

US cotton exports in 2016-17 are forecast at 14.0 million bales, a 53 per cent increase from the previous season, according to the US department of agriculture (USDA). Overall, the US share of world trade is expected to reach 39 per cent, up from 26 per cent last season, which would be the highest level in 6 years, the April 2017 report on cotton said.

“With global trade expected to rise by less than 4 per cent and with stable import forecasts for major US markets, US market share will have to expand significantly in many countries for the forecast to be obtained,” states the report ‘Cotton: World Markets and Trade’ released by Foreign Agricultural Service of the USDA.

Market share of US cotton is expanding in nearly all markets, with an exceptional increase in Taiwan. The US share of China’s imports has rebounded remarkably from 11 per cent last year (the lowest in over 2 decades) to 35 per cent, which is in line with the historical average.

“For 2016-17, global cotton use is raised only marginally, and production is raised, resulting in global ending stocks up slightly. Global trade is up marginally, while US exports are raised by 800,000 bales, reducing US ending stocks. The US season-average farm price forecast is lowered a half-cent to 68 cents/pound,” the report said.