UPS predicts record-breaking online returns this holiday season

By

Jennifer Braun

Published
Nov 6, 2019

This holiday season, UPS is forecasting yet another record-breaking year for e-commerce returns with a 26 percent increase from last year’s peak returns day, predicated to hit on January 2. 

 
Starting in December, more than 1 million return packages will be sent back to retailers daily, at a pace that is expected to last into early January, UPS predicts. 
 
An initial spike in returns is expected the week before Christmas, with 1.6 million packages potentially returned each day the week of December 16. 

UPS attributed the spike to more consumers buying gifts for themselves and buying gifts earlier, especially in the days leading up to Black Friday. 
 
But the second and largest spike in returns, which UPS dubs 'National Returns Day', is expected to occur on January 2 with a whopping 1.9 million packages returned through the UPS network. Last year, National Returns Day fell on December 20, as UPS awaited a record 1.5 million returns.
 
Cyber Monday 2018 was dubbed the largest online shopping day of all time in the U.S., with record breaking sales of $7.9 billion, up some 19.7 percent year-over-year, according to a report by Adobe Analytics. 

The online sales record was followed by Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday, which each brought in $3.7 billion (28 percent growth YoY) and $6.2 billion (23.6 percent growth YoY) in online shopping revenue.
 
“As retailers start preparing for the busy holiday season, they should certainly be factoring returns into their business plans,” said Kevin Warren, UPS’s chief marketing officer. 
 
“Gone are the days where returns were isolated to January – today’s empowered consumers will be sending packages back to retailers all season long.”